Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but very few government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
